2010 - Aaal Izz Well!

I have been reading quite a bit over the weekend. Newspapers, magazines, news channels are full of people predicting the future. Astrologers crystal gazing what the new year beholds, experts propounding if and how the global economy is going to turnaround. Frankly, I am quite exhausted at the end of year. Exhausted by the avalanche of events that took place and tired of listening to zillions of bright men and women who thought they knew how stock markets, economies and politics around the world are going to unfold in 2009. Not one, got it right. Not one was even close to getting it right. Let me offer you five events that happened in 2009, that you had no clue about in 2008:
- Did you know Barack Obama would become President? Ok fine, you knew he was in the running by late 2008.
- Did you know Satyam was one big lie? Did anyone even remotely hint at the possibility that Ramalinga Raju could be a scamster?
- Did you know that the Indian automobile sector posted its best ever year in a year of global "slowdown"?
- Did you know that the Indian cricket team was going to become the best test team in the world?
- Did you know Tiger Woods would stop playing golf because he would be caught in a another ball game with his pants down?
So I am unable to trust the fellows who offer me an opinion about the future.
I dont know about you, but I am signing off 2009 by borrowing a powerful thought from that wonderful movie, 3 idiots. Aaal Izz Well, my friend, Aaal Izz Well! 2010 here I come!

YSR - 1949-2009

If you have watched Maniratnam's classic Nayakan, you'd remember the famous dialogue, when don Velu Naicker's (played by Kamal Hassan) grandson asks him "Are you a good man or a bad man?"
Somehow, as I watched the funeral procession of YS Rajasekhara Reddy, I felt like asking him the same question. I studied in Hyderabad where several of my classmates were sons of TDP or Congress MLAs or had some political affiliation. I remember in the late 80s. political murders were rampant and some parts of Andhra were notorious for settling scores by brutal killings.
My early impression of YSR was that he was invincible in Cuddapah and that he spared no one who messed with his followers. I heard tales about how he had a factory that made country bombs, about how a marriage party of a former TDP MLA was blown to smithereens by YSR's men and so on. So that image of YSR stuck in my head.
Years later, I watched the embarrasing phase of the Congress in Andhra. A peculiar leadership crisis because there were one too many leaders. Chenna Reddy, Kotla Vijayabhaskar Reddy, Janardhan Reddy - all CMs at one point were in the race to power. Somehow YSR was not yet in this league. Well, he was much younger and if I remember right, he had become a parliamentarian by then. It was during this time that YSR's old pal, Chandrababu emerged from the ashes of NTR's death to take over the reins of the TDP and went on to rule the state for the next 10 years.
As Naidu was busy making powerpoint presentations and shmoozing with Bill Gates, YSR quietly took over the reins of the Congress, got together different factions, played his rural card to the hilt and recaptured the seat of power.
As Chief Minister, again, I heard several things about YSR. Stories of real estate scams, large-scale corruption all under his watchful eye, so I was told. Then Satyam happened, and one heard how YSR was shielding Ramalinga Raju. Publicly, he would argue that Raju was Naidu's pal but in Court his Govt's lawyers bungled (and some say deliberately) in nailing Raju. So was YSR keeping Raju in jail to save him? Some swore by this theory.
In the Nagarajuna Finance scam, YSR went after Nimesh Kampani, a former independent director who had quit years before the scandal happened. Why you ask? the real story in Hyderabad was how Kampani was paying a price for helping Ramoji Rao, the media baron, raise billions from the market. That Ramoji Rao was close to Naidu, YSR's bete noire was public knowledge.
So in the final analysis, YSR was a quintessential politician. He had a past. He had his friends and he had his foes. He made his money and he gave some away. He lived his life on the edge, he won a few battles and lost many. He managed his image of a champion of the rural masses yet ensured that he kept Banjara Hills happy. In his death, Andhra has lost a mass leader, someone who in the latter part of his political career had reached demi-god status.

But it is perhaps the circumstances of his death, that have made YSR leapfrog from being a demi-god politician to god. Last I heard, a temple is being built at Pulivendula, his village!

Why risk a drought?

Earlier this weeek, I was talking to a few experts on Risk Management and how companies need to make risk management practices a part of their daily operations. Ravi Narain, the head of the National Stock Exchange told me that taking risks may be a necessary part of growth but that does not mean that one should not have a contigency plan in place, just in case things go wrong. But he believes that risk and growth are not in conflict with each other.
Somehow that thought stuck in my head.
Now through the week, I have been reading and analysing the drought situation that seems to be worsening. As I write, 264 districts in India have been declared as drought affected. That's nearly half the country that we are talking about. Yesterday, the finance Minister says there is a need for a contingency plan to be put in place.
This is what I dont get.
So the Govt wants to put in place a plan after the crisis has happened. Much the same way, Mmbai spoke about the need for crisis management team after the terror attacks
Why is it when things are all hunky dory, no one speaks of the potential risks? When the country was growing at 8 per cent clip, not once did we speak about potential pitfalls. My question is
Why doesnt the Govt of India have its risk management practice in place?

Business News Channel Viewership - The Verdict

The latest viewership data from TAM reveals that on Budget day, CNBC TV18 was the most watched English news channel in India. Slice through the numbers across categories (age groups or time bands) and you will find that the dominance of CNBC TV18 is undisputed. Don't get me wrong, I am not writing this to thump my chest screaming victory or snigger with arrogance. Not at all.
I am not a big believer in the ratings game, largely because I do not think the existing method of measuring viewership is comprehensive or foolproof. For instance, the existing method does not capture viewership at offices at all (called Out-of-home audience). If you include this chunk, I believe, CNBCTV18's numbers would be much bigger than what it is now. But that's not the point.
What I want to talk about is the crisis of imagination that the industry is suffering from.
In the past four years, there have been three new players who have entered this market. All promising something new and something exciting. But they have ended up doing exactly the same as the market leader. And these viewership numbers, even if they are for one day, prove that their fare has not been accepted by viewer, for whatever reason. And here's the worst part (or the good part, depending on how you see it) - there is no one wanting to find out that reason. No one, including us, really knows what "works" on air. What is it that the viewer wants to see? In most news channels, content strategy is often defined by collective and subjective editorial opinions (read gut feel) and not at all backed by data. Compare this to say the FMCG industry, does an ITC launch a product without knowing what the consumer wants? Will HUL experiment with a variant of Surf without adequate qualitative research? If news channels were products, (I hate this comparison, though that's the reality of the marketplace) why does the consumer not feature in the equation at all?
To me, it is important for CNBCTV18 to retain its dominance but it is equally important to see that the playing field grows bigger. And that growth in the market will happen only if the industry attempts to know, understand, reach-out and serve the customer better. But, for now, I have no reason to complain, cos I am on the winning team!

Let The Games Begin!

After a long gap, I am back to writing about Dravidian politics! Much has changed in the last one year in the political landscape of Tamil Nadu, however, the basic premise that the political pendulum will swing one way or the other still remains. So say observers. But will it...really?

Here's what is at stake

40 seats. Tamil Nadu will send 39 members to the 15th Lok Sabha. Add one more from Pondicherry. As has been in the past two elections, the DMK or the AIADMK led coalition is expected to swing the popular vote its way entirely. In 2004, the DMK Supermo Muthuvel Karunanidhi engineered a rainbow coalition of 15 parties and knocked-out the Jaya-BJP combine 40-0. The control over these 40 seats gave Karunanidhi the clout to get whatever he wanted from the UPA Government. For starters, he got all the ministries he wanted. He got ministers changed - A.Raja took Dayanidhi's place as IT & Telecom Minister, when the latter fell out of favour with the DMK leadership. He almost got the Sethusamudram Project cleared - with a very vocal TR Balu fighting in Parliament. Had it not been for the Govt's lawyers mucking up in Supreme Court even that would have been reality.

Bone of Contention - The Tamil EalemIssue

What has become a political rallying point is the UPA's handling of the Tamil Ealam issue. Karunanidhi has been pushing for greater intervention by the Govt of India in the battle between the LTTE and Sri Lanka, and rescue the Tamils caught in the crossfire. While Pranab Mukherjee visited Colombo at Karunanidhi's insistence, it was perceived merely as an act of symbolism and did not result in any material outcome. This was enough fodder for the disgruntled elements with the DMK led coalition partners to call it quits. Vaiko, the firebrand leader of the MDMK who has made no bones of his support of the Ealem cause, quit the DMK alliance before the assembly elections in 2006. Now, the eternal cat on the wall, Dr Ramadoss cited Karunanidhi's failure over the Tamil Ealem issue, among several others, as a reason to switch sides. He arrived at a seat sharing deal with Jayalalithaa recently.

Here's how it looks now

So you have the DMK + Congress and a few minor parties such as the Dalit Panthers led by Thol Thirumavalavan on one hand. The AIADMK + PMK + MDMK + Left on the other. Amma notched up a clever alliance with the left parties, who control 1 or 2 seats in the State.

There are two important players left - the BJP and DMDK led by Actor Vijaykanth. BJP is not a strong force in the State, but it is inevitable for one of the State coalitions to ally with NDA at the centre, if it comes close to forming the next government. But the real spoiler in this elections is going to be Vijaykanth and his DMDK. In the last assembly elections, DMDK debuted with a commendable 8 per cent vote share. While Vijaykanth has ruled out allying with both the coalitions, his strategy post the elections may be critical in deciding which electoral alliance from Tamil Nadu will call the shots at the centre.