Rice Politics and a nervous Amma

The political protagonists of Tamil Nadu never cease to surprise their voters with their histrionics. And the people too, have never failed to surprise their leaders with their pattern of voting. The pendulum of public support in Tamil Nadu has always swung in favour of one of the two major Dravidian parties. Which side the pendulum swings may be a subject of speculation, but that there will be a landslide is a foregone conclusion.

Not this time, though. Somehow, somewhere, everyone – politicians, voters, armchair critics and even my grandmother seem to acknowledge that times have changed. Why even, Karunanidhi, recently made, a veiled reference to accepting a coalition regime to oust the “anti-people jaya regime”. Coalition, until recently, was a bad word for the DMK. And even the voter’s expectations have undergone a transformation. The fruits of economic growth have indeed trickled down (not maybe entirely) to the grassroots and therefore aspirations of the common man have taken a quantum leap. Take a peek at what voters in Krishnagiri want from the next Government: Revival of small-scale units and investments in Industry. Also topping their list of demands is more colleges and an IT park! When was the last time you heard such a wish-list from a rural district in India.

This is a new reality that even Jayalalithaa acknowledges. For the first time in Battle 2006, she has displayed a sense of nervousness. Two of her actions expose her apprehensions – her decision to cancel her campaign in Kerala (the AIADMK, for the first time ever, has ambitiously fielded candidates in Kerala) and spend more time in smaller hamlets in Tamil Nadu. Kerala is irrelevant in the current scheme of things for Jaya and her party. But that she has chosen to campaign in the same areas in Tamil Nadu once again is significant. Secondly, she has responded to Karunanidhi’s offer of “Rice at Rs 2 per kg” with a counter offer of “Rice at Rs 3.50 for 10 kg”. (I still don’t understand the economic rationale of how this is a better deal!) This knee-jerk response is uncharacteristic of Amma. Her decision to get into a game of one-upmanship in poll promises displays a sense of fear that people will buy Karunanidhi’s story. This is reminiscent of what happened in Andhra Pradesh in the 80s when NTR was voted back to power. He started his campaign with a Rs 2 per kg of rice promise. The ruling Congress Party, desperate and clueless in the last lap of the campaign, chose to offer rice at Rs 1.50. This move boomeranged and the party was wiped out from the state for the next decade. Two questions: Are these populist promises in sync with the aspirations of the times? If they are and if they prevail, will Jaya face a similar embarrassment? Let’s wait and watch…

The Art Of The Impossible

If Vaiko jumping sides was a surprise, eat this: Sarath Kumar, Actor and sitting Member of Parliament from the DMK has decided joined the AIADMK. That's not all, his wife, Radhikaa, who runs, Radaan Media, one of the largest and, arguably the most successful, TV production companies in South India, has thrown in her lot as well. Sarath Kumar's entry in the AIADMK fold is a sure shot in the arm for the electoral prospects of Amma's alliance. Sarath Kumar, is a influential and vocal member of the Nadar community, which was a Congress votebank once upon a time. After Kamaraj, himself a Nadar, the community not seen a leader rise from within. Over the years, the void of a seasoned mass Nadar leader coupled with the arrival of a charismatic Nadar in Sarath Kumar, paved the way for the DMK to snatch this votebank away from the Congress. But, the Nadars, for various reasons, were never too comfortable with the DMK. They were never as cosy with Karunanidhi as, say the Thevars were (and are) with Jayalalithaa. The community's internal divisions - Nadar Hindus and Nadar Christians has only split their political clout along regional and religious considerations.
The real reasons for Sarath's exit are still not clear. The community, one hears, is peeved because very few Nadars have been given tickets in Karunanidhi's DPA. Added to this is Sarath's frustration of being sidelined within the party. Sarath's entry to the AIADMK would mean that the Nadar vote would be in favour of Amma's alliance, atleast the Nadar Hindus. And, Sarath is also an effective campaigner and crowd puller, something that would be useful in - what is turning out a close contest - where every seat seems to count and every vote seems to matter.

Sun Rising & the Rising Sun

Sun TV is going public. The current bull run in the stock markets has attracted the media-shy media mogul, Kalanidhi Maran to raise a few hundred crores to fund his expansion plans. Maran is an ambitious man. Having established a formidable media empire across the four states in South India, he is now spreading his wings to FM Radio and the Tamil newspaper market as well. Whilst his need to fund new businesses is genuine, the key question is - why now?

Sun TV is a Rs 300 crore company with a bottomline of just under Rs 100 crore. That makes him one of the most profitable media enterprises in the country. His success in the in the print media business is still under test. The turnaround of Kungumam, a Tamil weekly mag, ever since Maran actively took control of, is nothing short of spectacular. This magazine has registered the fastest growth in the country, that’s according to the National Readership Survey for 2005. And now, Maran has created a stir in the newspaper market by acquiring and re-launching the venerable Dinakaran, a tamil news daily, by selling it at a cover price of Re 1. And with 41 FM radio licenses under his belt, Maran can be expected to fuel some action in the airwaves as well.

But that’s not half as exciting as the politics behind this public issue. Tamil Nadu is perhaps the only state in the country where ownership of media has always had close links with political establishments. Maran is Karunanidhi's grand nephew. The initial corpus for Sun TV came from the DMK. Even today, the channel is housed at the Anna Arivalayam, the headquarters of the DMK. The success of his network, particularly the on-ground cable distribution owes its growth to the grassroot strength of the DMK. Maran is what he is because of the DMK’s handholding in his early years. Credit him with business acumen, but his political moorings are too close for his own comfort. MDMK’s Vaiko has chosen to focus on Sun TV’s “illegitimate” rise and make it an election issue this time. Jayalalithaa has already formulated a law to take over cable distribution in the State. The bill is awaiting the Governor’s approval.

So if the DMK wins, Maran’s business empire can continue to grow at the scorching pace that it has and perhaps even look beyond the Vindhyas. If it does not, Maran will face the heat from the Jaya-Vaiko combine. And then, he would need a war chest to take them on since the party’s coffers would be empty post-election. To fill that war chest he needs money. Now. That’s why this public issue. The future rise of Sun TV will all depend on the electoral prospects of The Rising Sun.