Rice Politics and a nervous Amma

The political protagonists of Tamil Nadu never cease to surprise their voters with their histrionics. And the people too, have never failed to surprise their leaders with their pattern of voting. The pendulum of public support in Tamil Nadu has always swung in favour of one of the two major Dravidian parties. Which side the pendulum swings may be a subject of speculation, but that there will be a landslide is a foregone conclusion.

Not this time, though. Somehow, somewhere, everyone – politicians, voters, armchair critics and even my grandmother seem to acknowledge that times have changed. Why even, Karunanidhi, recently made, a veiled reference to accepting a coalition regime to oust the “anti-people jaya regime”. Coalition, until recently, was a bad word for the DMK. And even the voter’s expectations have undergone a transformation. The fruits of economic growth have indeed trickled down (not maybe entirely) to the grassroots and therefore aspirations of the common man have taken a quantum leap. Take a peek at what voters in Krishnagiri want from the next Government: Revival of small-scale units and investments in Industry. Also topping their list of demands is more colleges and an IT park! When was the last time you heard such a wish-list from a rural district in India.

This is a new reality that even Jayalalithaa acknowledges. For the first time in Battle 2006, she has displayed a sense of nervousness. Two of her actions expose her apprehensions – her decision to cancel her campaign in Kerala (the AIADMK, for the first time ever, has ambitiously fielded candidates in Kerala) and spend more time in smaller hamlets in Tamil Nadu. Kerala is irrelevant in the current scheme of things for Jaya and her party. But that she has chosen to campaign in the same areas in Tamil Nadu once again is significant. Secondly, she has responded to Karunanidhi’s offer of “Rice at Rs 2 per kg” with a counter offer of “Rice at Rs 3.50 for 10 kg”. (I still don’t understand the economic rationale of how this is a better deal!) This knee-jerk response is uncharacteristic of Amma. Her decision to get into a game of one-upmanship in poll promises displays a sense of fear that people will buy Karunanidhi’s story. This is reminiscent of what happened in Andhra Pradesh in the 80s when NTR was voted back to power. He started his campaign with a Rs 2 per kg of rice promise. The ruling Congress Party, desperate and clueless in the last lap of the campaign, chose to offer rice at Rs 1.50. This move boomeranged and the party was wiped out from the state for the next decade. Two questions: Are these populist promises in sync with the aspirations of the times? If they are and if they prevail, will Jaya face a similar embarrassment? Let’s wait and watch…