Run up to a political tsunami

2006 assembly elections promises to be the tipping point in Tamil Nadu politics for many contenders and for many reasons. If the sabre rattling, in the run up to the polls, is any proof to go by, it is clear that battle lines have been drawn between the two leading alliances. The DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance – the umbrella coalition of opposition parties in the State minus the BJP continues to stay united despite rumours of rumble in the ranks. Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, is still playing her political cards close to her chest. But the gameplan that was drawn by the DPA alliance to oust the Jaya regime, way before the Lok Sabha elections 2004, has been dramatically altered. Let’s look a few reasons why.

Rewind to 2004. Jayalalithaa’s image heightened after she came clean from the charges of corruption that were the very reasons for her humiliating defeat in the previous assembly elections. The High Court clearing her in the infamous TANSI land case was a shot in the arm for the rank and file of the Anna DMK. With renewed vigour, Amma’s popularity reached at an all time high. And here’s when things turned horribly wrong. Three separate events – the Govt employees strike for a pay hike was dealt with an iron hand by the State. In one stroke of political high handedness, Jayalalithaa, passed an ordinance modifying Tamil Nadu Essential Services Maintenance Act (TESMA). Overnight, over 2 lakh Govt employees were sacked. A few months earlier, a similar treatment was meted out to a genuine student uprising. Medical college students across the state protested the mushrooming of private medical colleges. The Director of Medical Education suspended 5000 students across the State – crushing their attempt at a democratic means of dialogue with the Govt. Then came Jaya’s piece de resistance. The Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly convened an emergency meeting on the last day of the winter session to order the arrest of journalists of The Hindu – for what it claimed “malicious and defamatory reportage against their beloved Amma”. While the Central Govt intervened to broker peace between the editors of the newspaper and the Govt, the death knell for Jayalalithaa had been rung. These ostensibly unconnected events revealed the brute force and the audacity with which the State Government chose to clamp down any form of opposition to its policies. But then, this aggression was short-lived. Jayalalithaa’s power drunk glory came crashing to the ground with the humiliating defeat that the AIADMK front faced in the Lok Sabha elections. Of the 40 Parliament seats (including Pondicherry) – the DMK-led combine swept all the 40 seats. This victory signalled two things: One, the people of Tamil Nadu were clearly miffed with the present regime and had shifted loyalties. Secondly, a point psephologists had predicted, that the combined electoral arithmetic of the DPA coalition had routed the AIADMK’s electoral prospects.

From this defeat, rose another Jayalalithaa. This Jaya would take no more non-populist decisions. She would no more order midnights arrests nor would she direct suspension. Instead, she became the epitome of generosity, re-created the image that of a benevolent mother that was once her political passport. All controversial legislations – TESMA, Forcible religious conversions act, power tariff hike, bus fare hike were revoked overnight. This new-found image of Amma was further bolstered by a remarkable achievement by the Special Task Force in killing Sandalwood smuggler, Veerapan. Although, Veerapan’s death did not garner political mileage, it certainly did wonders to the image of her Government. The characteristic intransigence of the Jayalalithaa regime suddenly was supplanted by transparency and dialogue. This, suddenly, was a Government that took action, that produced results. Or it seemed.

It was during this time, the grand old man of Tamil Nadu politics, was cleverly dotting the i’s of his gameplan. Everything had worked perfectly for Karunanidhi. He quit the NDA and joined the Cong led coalition at the right time, usurped the role of the king maker with finesse, cobbled up a coalition in the State and led it from the front to victory, and installed his grand-nephew and ten others in the Union cabinet. But nature had other plans.

In December 2004, a tsunami, a word that would soon be added to common parlance in India, left a trail of death and devastation in Tamil Nadu. The damage was unprecedented. The rebuilding efforts required the Government to rise above petty political concerns. And that the Jayalalithaa regime did well - to its credit. Even the World Bank has acknowledged that the remarkable repair and relief work carried out by the State Govt. This natural disaster was not factored in Karunanidhi’s political gameplan. Worse, still, the state had more tragedy in the offing. The torrential rains in 2005, caused more death and destruction. Despite the best of efforts, the State Govt’s handling of rehabilitation came in for criticism. Particularly, the stampedes at relief camps were just unpardonable. But were they blips or was it a failure of administrative machinery? Facts would point to the former but the DMK would vouch for the latter. Unquestionably, the healing touch of the State Government has erased the follies of its past from the minds of the people. Karunanidhi understands this better than anyone else. Therefore, he is now re-drafting his plan to take of the challenges of the new reality. As of Jan 2006, the DMK-led coalition has begun issuing the war cry. While Amma is quietly working on building her campaign on her recent achievements. Will the DPA last or will Jaya manage to break it? Will Amma go with the BJP or will she go it alone? These answers will unfold in a few months. Clearly, this is a political tsunami that is waiting to lash the State of Tamil Nadu.