Sun rises on Fort St George

82-year old Muthuvel Karunanidhi is set to become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu once again. He will be anointed for the fifth time as the head of the State, but for the first time ever in the history of Tamil Nadu politics, the DMK will lead a minority government, supported by the Congress, the PMK and the left parties. It has been a decisive victory for the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance that has romped home with 162 seats, leaving Amma way behind with 70 seats.

Lessons learnt

But what’s more interesting are the many twists and turns that we have seen in Elections 2006. In the run-up to the polls, the DPA hoped to repeat the spectacular success that it tasted during Lok Sabha 2004, when it knocked the AIADMK, 40 to none. But it received its first jolt when Vaiko’s MDMK walked out of the alliance and joined hands with Amma. The elections results this time, however, have cut Vaiko down to size. His MDMK has managed to win only 7 seats proving that he is still only a fringe player in Tamil Nadu. Thol Thriumavalavan also has some soul searching to do. His Dalit Panthers have hardly made an impact on the electorate, winning just two seats despite its presence in the State for the past one decade. Even Dr Ramadoss needs to introspect on his party’s performance. Hitherto, he has been cleverly jumping onto winning alliances, but somewhere, his grip on the Vanniar community seems to slip and the need to reach out to larger votebase seems imminent.

Captain Vijaykanth

The big story of victory is that of actor Vijaykanth and his DMDK. Although he has managed to win only one seat (Vridachalam where he contested), the party has made a huge dent on the winning margins across the State. DMDK has made significant inroads in North Tamil Nadu, PMK’s bastion and more importantly, it has eaten into vote shares of parties across the board. For instance, K Anbazhagan, treasurer of the DMK, won his homeground Harbour constituency by an embarrassing 400-odd votes. A DMDK candidate managed to eat into both the DMK’s and the ADMK’s share. In all, an 8.33% voteshare across the State for a first timer is truly commendable.

Moral of the story

Much has been said about the “arithmetic versus chemistry” that titled the voter in favour of one alliance. Also, there has been considerable analysis of the populist promises of rice and colour TVs that both Karunanidhi and Jaya offered. But for me, it’s not the rice, the colour TV or the poll alliance that ticked. The big winner, for me, was clearly the voter of Tamil Nadu. The state had a 70% voter turnout – a clear affirmation of the belief in democracy and in the process of adult franchise. Amma’s ouster is also a loud announcement that people prefer change irrespective of performance of the Government. Change, it seems, is a constant need among the electorate of Tamil Nadu.

Pramod Mahajan - Triumph of Spirit

As I write this, Pramod Mahajan is fighting his last battle for survival at the Hinduja Hospital in Mumbai. The story of Pramod Mahajan, to me, is a tale of confidence, self-belief and perseverance in the dirty world of politics. I recall it was in the early 1990s that I first heard about Mahajan from a classmate, who himself was a staunch VHP supporter. He told me how Pramod was a swayamsevak and a rising star in the BJP. A few days later, I read an article on the BJP-RSS adroitly written by Swapan Dasgupta in India Today. Then sometime, later, I saw him on Star News (the earlier NDTV avatar). Pramod Mahajan came across as a confident, articulate and moderate voice of the BJP. He handled the discussion with élan, bounced off criticism with seasoned repartee and managed to win the confidence of both the audience in the studio who responded to his remarks with thunderous applause and millions of middle-class viewers across the country. Mahajan was the middle-class hook of the BJP. His suave, polished countenance coupled with his Hindutva belief was the right recipe to serve the middle-classes during those times. Mind you, I am talking of a period after Babri and before Godhra, when there was unabashed support for Hindutva politics and growing anticipation of the BJP as the Government-in-waiting. Mahajan ascendance can be attributed to being the right man in the right party and at the right time. He embraced modern world thinking, networked with corporate India and was often troubleshooter for the party. But Pramod Mahajan was no saint. He had his fair share of controversies – accusations of corruption, scandal and murder.
The next decade saw Mahajan grow in stature and occupy an enviable position of a master strategist for BJP’s election campaigns. Mahajan was made Defence Minister in Vajpayee’s 13-day Government. He later held the IT, Telecom, Parliamentary Affairs portfolios. But Mahajan’s fall from the power zone was as quick as his rise. He was believed to be the key architect of the India Shining campaign that bombed during the Lok Sabha Elections 2004. Mahajan, unlike other politicians, accepted defeat and took responsibility for it. I still remember in a TV interview, he candidly admitted, “If I’d won, I’d been made a hero, now that we have lost, I take responsibility and look at future challenges.” This was quintessential Mahajan. An eternal optimist and a fighter. For someone, who came from a village called Ambejogai in Maharashtra, it is this die-hard spirit that came to his aid in his moment of crisis. It’s only a matter of time before we hear the worst from the Hinduja Hospital. But Pramod Mahajan will always be remembered as a man – who was candid about his views, someone who fought hard, and never failed to his accept his mistakes. A rare quality in a politician.

Rice Politics and a nervous Amma

The political protagonists of Tamil Nadu never cease to surprise their voters with their histrionics. And the people too, have never failed to surprise their leaders with their pattern of voting. The pendulum of public support in Tamil Nadu has always swung in favour of one of the two major Dravidian parties. Which side the pendulum swings may be a subject of speculation, but that there will be a landslide is a foregone conclusion.

Not this time, though. Somehow, somewhere, everyone – politicians, voters, armchair critics and even my grandmother seem to acknowledge that times have changed. Why even, Karunanidhi, recently made, a veiled reference to accepting a coalition regime to oust the “anti-people jaya regime”. Coalition, until recently, was a bad word for the DMK. And even the voter’s expectations have undergone a transformation. The fruits of economic growth have indeed trickled down (not maybe entirely) to the grassroots and therefore aspirations of the common man have taken a quantum leap. Take a peek at what voters in Krishnagiri want from the next Government: Revival of small-scale units and investments in Industry. Also topping their list of demands is more colleges and an IT park! When was the last time you heard such a wish-list from a rural district in India.

This is a new reality that even Jayalalithaa acknowledges. For the first time in Battle 2006, she has displayed a sense of nervousness. Two of her actions expose her apprehensions – her decision to cancel her campaign in Kerala (the AIADMK, for the first time ever, has ambitiously fielded candidates in Kerala) and spend more time in smaller hamlets in Tamil Nadu. Kerala is irrelevant in the current scheme of things for Jaya and her party. But that she has chosen to campaign in the same areas in Tamil Nadu once again is significant. Secondly, she has responded to Karunanidhi’s offer of “Rice at Rs 2 per kg” with a counter offer of “Rice at Rs 3.50 for 10 kg”. (I still don’t understand the economic rationale of how this is a better deal!) This knee-jerk response is uncharacteristic of Amma. Her decision to get into a game of one-upmanship in poll promises displays a sense of fear that people will buy Karunanidhi’s story. This is reminiscent of what happened in Andhra Pradesh in the 80s when NTR was voted back to power. He started his campaign with a Rs 2 per kg of rice promise. The ruling Congress Party, desperate and clueless in the last lap of the campaign, chose to offer rice at Rs 1.50. This move boomeranged and the party was wiped out from the state for the next decade. Two questions: Are these populist promises in sync with the aspirations of the times? If they are and if they prevail, will Jaya face a similar embarrassment? Let’s wait and watch…

The Art Of The Impossible

If Vaiko jumping sides was a surprise, eat this: Sarath Kumar, Actor and sitting Member of Parliament from the DMK has decided joined the AIADMK. That's not all, his wife, Radhikaa, who runs, Radaan Media, one of the largest and, arguably the most successful, TV production companies in South India, has thrown in her lot as well. Sarath Kumar's entry in the AIADMK fold is a sure shot in the arm for the electoral prospects of Amma's alliance. Sarath Kumar, is a influential and vocal member of the Nadar community, which was a Congress votebank once upon a time. After Kamaraj, himself a Nadar, the community not seen a leader rise from within. Over the years, the void of a seasoned mass Nadar leader coupled with the arrival of a charismatic Nadar in Sarath Kumar, paved the way for the DMK to snatch this votebank away from the Congress. But, the Nadars, for various reasons, were never too comfortable with the DMK. They were never as cosy with Karunanidhi as, say the Thevars were (and are) with Jayalalithaa. The community's internal divisions - Nadar Hindus and Nadar Christians has only split their political clout along regional and religious considerations.
The real reasons for Sarath's exit are still not clear. The community, one hears, is peeved because very few Nadars have been given tickets in Karunanidhi's DPA. Added to this is Sarath's frustration of being sidelined within the party. Sarath's entry to the AIADMK would mean that the Nadar vote would be in favour of Amma's alliance, atleast the Nadar Hindus. And, Sarath is also an effective campaigner and crowd puller, something that would be useful in - what is turning out a close contest - where every seat seems to count and every vote seems to matter.

Sun Rising & the Rising Sun

Sun TV is going public. The current bull run in the stock markets has attracted the media-shy media mogul, Kalanidhi Maran to raise a few hundred crores to fund his expansion plans. Maran is an ambitious man. Having established a formidable media empire across the four states in South India, he is now spreading his wings to FM Radio and the Tamil newspaper market as well. Whilst his need to fund new businesses is genuine, the key question is - why now?

Sun TV is a Rs 300 crore company with a bottomline of just under Rs 100 crore. That makes him one of the most profitable media enterprises in the country. His success in the in the print media business is still under test. The turnaround of Kungumam, a Tamil weekly mag, ever since Maran actively took control of, is nothing short of spectacular. This magazine has registered the fastest growth in the country, that’s according to the National Readership Survey for 2005. And now, Maran has created a stir in the newspaper market by acquiring and re-launching the venerable Dinakaran, a tamil news daily, by selling it at a cover price of Re 1. And with 41 FM radio licenses under his belt, Maran can be expected to fuel some action in the airwaves as well.

But that’s not half as exciting as the politics behind this public issue. Tamil Nadu is perhaps the only state in the country where ownership of media has always had close links with political establishments. Maran is Karunanidhi's grand nephew. The initial corpus for Sun TV came from the DMK. Even today, the channel is housed at the Anna Arivalayam, the headquarters of the DMK. The success of his network, particularly the on-ground cable distribution owes its growth to the grassroot strength of the DMK. Maran is what he is because of the DMK’s handholding in his early years. Credit him with business acumen, but his political moorings are too close for his own comfort. MDMK’s Vaiko has chosen to focus on Sun TV’s “illegitimate” rise and make it an election issue this time. Jayalalithaa has already formulated a law to take over cable distribution in the State. The bill is awaiting the Governor’s approval.

So if the DMK wins, Maran’s business empire can continue to grow at the scorching pace that it has and perhaps even look beyond the Vindhyas. If it does not, Maran will face the heat from the Jaya-Vaiko combine. And then, he would need a war chest to take them on since the party’s coffers would be empty post-election. To fill that war chest he needs money. Now. That’s why this public issue. The future rise of Sun TV will all depend on the electoral prospects of The Rising Sun.

Billion Dollar Cry Babies

193000 dollars. 86 lakh rupees. That’s the salary that Gaurav Agarwal will earn in a year from Barclay’s in London. Gaurav is the poster -boy of the fabulous placements – both overseas and domestic - that the IIMs have received this year. And he’s not alone. The IIMs have seen a 40 per cent jump in average and top salaries this year. Now the two young lads – Gaurav and Venkatesh Shankaraman (Take home Rs 30 lakh in India) have written to the Prakash Apte, Director, IIM B asking him not to disclose salary figures of IIM grads in future. They argue that top dollar salaries when reported in the media “…tend to catch the attention of unscrupulous elements and could cause immense physical as well as psychological distress for the persons involved.” They contend that salary figures are “personal” and therefore should be kept “confidential”. In response to this ostensibly earnest appeal, Prof Apte has responded saying henceforth there will be no media announcements of B-school salaries, at least with reference to IIM Bangalore. This development exposes both the naiveté of the students and the knee-jerk response of the IIM establishment.

The Indian Institutes of Management were set up by an act of Parliament. When the erstwhile NDA government tried to tinker with the fee structure of India’s leading business schools, the IIMs, cried foul that their autonomy was being compromised. A large section of the media, the business press, in particular, sided with them. Here was an Indian institution that attracts global talent and that has earned international repute and whose students are sought after every year by companies across the world. To let the government meddle with an institution of excellence seemed blasphemous. “Leave them alone,” said the media.

But now the IIMs have the tables turned on them. An institution set up by Government support and subsidy now seeks to rubbish the idea of transparency. Somewhere, these B-school babies seem embarrassed by their own success. They offer a naïve argument that “unscrupulous elements” will come knocking on their doors. Yeah right! the chota Shakeels and Abu Salems regularly scan the b-school placement list to hone in the next target. For starters, most top dollar employers at B-schools are listed entities; therefore, public disclosure of information about their recruitment plans is mandatory. Even if they are not, do spare a thought for those millions of b-school aspirants. When starting salaries are the yardstick for b-school ratings, it becomes the duty of the media to offer credible information regarding salaries, job offers and so on. Denying this information defeats the spirit of competition - the core spirit of the IIMs.

Rewind to 2001. The economy was not as robust as it is now. You had cases of top notch investments banks and tech companies withdrawing both placement and pre-placement offers. The students then, sought the help of the media, to argue that companies had violated all ethical norms by going back on their word. If the IIMs needed the media to campaign in their favour then, should they withhold information to serve the purpose of a few now? This selective disclosure clearly does not work. The IIMs clearly need better media management skills than they possess currently.

Case for CAS

CAS is back! The Delhi High Court says Conditional Access System should be implemented in the three metros in four weeks. This means, if you are living in Delhi, Mumbai or Kolkata, you would need a set-top box to view pay television channels from April 1. In Sept 2004, when CAS was introduced, Chennai was the only city in India then that complied with this regime. The other State Govts protested and refused conditional access for television viewing in their cities.

While the pros and cons of CAS, as a concept, has been debated to death, the HC order now brings the issue of implementation sharply into focus. A few pertinent questions - Will CAS get entangled in a legal mess yet again? Will broadcasters (like Star did last time) throw a spanner in the works? Most MSOs/last-mile cable operators, that I spoke to in Mumbai, cite the Chennai example as a model for emulating. However, the fundamental difference between Chennai and the rest of India, in terms of television viewing, is that popular mass entertainment channels are Free-To-Air… therefore, CAS was easier to enforce. This is not the case in the rest of the country. So will there be consumer resistance to CAS? Are MSOs/Last Mile Operators ready for a rollout in a month? This would mean sourcing STBs, offering reasonably priced schemes for rental/schemes for STBs etc. And who regulates implementation? The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India is toothless body without executive powers and unless the respective State Govts are willing to play ball, there is a hurdle there as well. Net net - a system that is designed to give the consumer the right to choose – once again runs the risk of becoming a casualty of vested interests and flawed implementation.

Varanasi and thereafter…

So here’s another bomb blast. Yet another case of ‘intelligence failure’. And as always, the Govt does its well-rehearsed charade of huddling into an emergency meeting after the incident, promises ‘immediate’ action to nab the culprits. Somehow, true to script, the next morning it guns down a ‘suspect’ on the outskirts of Delhi. He obviously has to have a Muslim name and ofcourse, his curriculum vitae has to boast of impressive brands. Interned at Jaish-e-Mohammed, headed Harkat-ul-ansar, militancy experience in J&K, has links to the dreaded Lashkar-e-Taiba. For all you know the bloke must have been roaming freely in Dhaula Kuan until yesterday, when the Delhi Police decided to use him for some target practice. Now why is that every militant who is shot dead/arrested has three or more aliases. And the cops do not even credit these terrorists with creativity in naming. Taste this: “We have apprehended a dreaded terrorist named Mohammed Yusuf alias Yusuf Mohammed alias Mohammed alias Professor Yusuf". And in the world of terrorist brands, the Lashkar is the undisputed number one. Even when in doubt, the India security agencies don’t seem to blink an eyelid before they point fingers at the LeT.
On a serious note, the attack in Varanasi brings the communal issue into sharp focus. Firstly, the blast will be viewed as an attack on the Hindu’s religious nerve center of Varanasi. That too, an attack on a Hanuman Temple – the monkey god who stands for strength, valour and courage. And that too, an attack during Aarthi time on a Tuesday. These facts are fodder enough for the Hindu right wing to rear its ugly head yet again. The scary consequence of this incident is that it brings communal tensions back in the reckoning. That’s exactly what the VHP and its ilk wanted. Didn't they?

Vaiko steals a march…finally

Cracks have appeared in the Democratic Progressive Alliance, the umbrella coalition cobbled together by Karunanidhi, to oust the Jayalalithaa regime. Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) has switched sides yet again. Vaiko has been offered 35 seats by the ruling AIADMK for the May 8 polls to the Tamil Nadu Assembly. The immediate effect of the move means that Karunanidhi’s dream of repeating the DPA’s Lok Sabha victory in the assembly polls stands shattered. But the electoral ramification of the Karunanidhi-Vaiko split this time is far-reaching.

This is the second time that Vaiko has parted ways with Karunanidhi. In fact, the MDMK was born because of Vaiko’s first revolt. In the late ‘90s, Vaiko was the rising star in the DMK. His political acumen, fiery speeches and his aggressive stance on the Eelam issue earned him a berth in Karunanidhi’s inner circle. While political spindoctors were hailing Vaiko as DMK’s next leader, Kalaignar was hatching other plans. Stalin, his second son, was being groomed as the heir apparent of the political leadership of the party. Stalin’s promotion within the party was in direct conflict with Vaiko’s political aspirations. Therefore, when Vaiko revolted, quit and set up MDMK – it was perceived as a battle between dynastic politics and democracy. The MDMK’s stellar success in its first ever elections was testimony to the fact that the people of Tamil Nadu stood by Vaiko. They saw in him a man who had the ability to carve a distinct identity within the Dravidian fold. They saw in him a politician who had the gall to stand up against his mentor Karunanidhi. For he claimed he was wronged and the people believed him so. But those were different times.

With assembly elections less than two months away, Vaiko faces two major challenges. He needs to convince his electorate on two counts – why this revolt against Karunanidhi? And why join hands with Jayalalithaa?
Particularly, the logic behind this revolt has to be hardsold by Vaiko to his votebank. Here are a few facts that stack up against him. In 2003, when Vaiko was languishing in prison on charges of POTA slapped on him by Jayalalithaa, it was Karunanidhi who came to his rescue. It was Karunanidhi who bargained hard with the then NDA government to get Vaiko released from prison.If it not for Karunanidhi’s insistence on revoking POTA, Vaiko would still have been cooling his heels at Vellore jail. Although POTA was not repealed in its entirety even then, if not for Karunanidhi throwing his political weight on this issue, Vaiko would not even have got bail. Vaiko release from prison and his public “vow” to ally with the DMK are still afresh in public memory. Therefore, the Karunanidhi-Vaiko fallout, this time will be viewed as a sishya betraying his guru. A guru who helped in his moment of crisis. Secondly, it would require more than just political brilliance to convince people as to why he chose to join hands with Amma. It was the same Chief Minister who ordered his arrest under POTA! In fact, Vaiko has been vociferously against the Jayalalithaa regime on several issues.

Whilst the electoral arithmetic (35 seats offered by Anna DMK as against 20 offered by DMK) of seat sharing seems to have been the immediate trigger for Vaiko’s sudden shift in loyalties, the long term prospects of winning seem blurred. Vaiko's position now is akin to Abhimanyu in the Mahabharata. He has taken a bold step to enter the electoral chakravyuha. He has no other choice but to fight. And even if he wins, he needs to win big. Else, he runs the risk of being wiped out as a political force. Either which way, his relationship with his mentor, Karunanidhi and the DMK are over. Atleast for now.

Fears of a monopoly

These are exciting times for the Indian civil aviation sector. This week, Jet Airways swallowed Air Sahara for 500 million dollars in an all cash deal, giving birth to the largest private sector airline in this country. The combined entity would control over fifty percent of the market and, currently reports over Rs 7000 crore in revenues. That’s not all. The Jet-Sahara combine would control two-thirds of the parking bays, a crucial and most sought after infrastructure requirement for airlines, in both Delhi and Mumbai airports. And there’s more. The combine would control over sixty percent of the traffic between the nation’s political and financial capital every day.

Just after this deal was signed, smaller players in the field started crying hoarse and made feeble noises about a monopolistic situation created by the merger of India’s top two private sector airlines. Their fears are not misplaced for several reasons. For starters, the other airlines in the fray viz Air Deccan, Kingfisher Airlines, Go Air and SpiceJet are way too small in comparison. For argument’s sake, let’s leave Air Deccan out of this discussion, for it’s relatively older, low-cost player and reportedly has a marketing alliance with Jet in place already. That leaves us with the other three – which are still wet behind the ears and yet to make a big dent on the market leader. That’s not to say that they are insignificant. All three – in a short time – have adroitly positioned themselves in a market that is on the threshold of an explosion. Never before, has the Indian traveler had it so good. Sample this – the average cost of a ticket say between Mumbai and Chennai is around Rs 3500. Given the plethora of fare options - full fare, check fare, discount fares or what have you; the consumer is undeniably enjoying the benefits of competition.

Would this deal create a monopoly?

The law of the land does not term this deal illegal. It does not even call it monopolistic. In fact, monopoly laws in India particularly in the aviation sector are blurred primarily because this is the first instance when the private sector is playing such a dominant role in this industry.

Monopoly, as economics 101 defines, is a situation when there is a single seller, in a given industry. Monopoly, as a concept, is not evil. It is an ideal that every company fantasizes about but competition – the life-blood of free market enterprise – ensures that a monopolistic situation does not arise. There are many companies in several industries that enjoy not just leadership - but a dominant position in the marketplace. For instance, HLL is a dominant player in the FMCG business, whose rivals are much smaller and possess lesser clout in influencing forces that define success in the marketplace. So, dominance, unlike monopoly, is a tangible goal that every company aspires to achieve. What the Jet-Sahara combine has achieved in the aviation sector is market dominance. Now the questions that need to be asked are these: Were the methods used to achieve this status of dominance against the law of the land – both in letter and spirit? Will this deal place the Jet-Sahara combine in a position that will deprive the consumer’s right to choose – both in terms of pricing and quality of service – as against enhancing it?
Road to market dominance

A company’s leadership in market is measured on a quantitative parameter of sales. In rare cases, it may ascend to a position of dominance by virtue of a revolutionary idea - developing an innovative product and, thereby creating a new market for itself. Sony’s Walkman or Apple’s I-Pod are cases in point. These are pioneers whose dominance lasts as long as a me-too product does not arrive in the marketplace.

But there may be a few situations, which require Govt regulation. A dominant player may use unscrupulous methods to influence Government policy to restrict new entrants in the market. Here, the market leader can control pricing and quality of service, which may be detrimental to the consumer. He may also control access to resources – physical infrastructure or manpower. Price them exorbitantly, pushing it beyond the means of competition. This too, deserves regulation.

In the Jet-Sahara deal, the methods adopted to achieve a status of dominance are clearly above board. Jet, a listed company, has played by the book and has been transparent in the process of acquisition. Sahara, despite its dubious pedigree, has snapped a pretty package, way higher than what analysts had predicted.

So, if this acquisition and its process are legal, are the fears unfounded?

Clearly, Jet will resort to business tactics to get returns that justify its huge investment.
But since access to resources is such a crucial aspect of this business, it is imperative of the Government to ensure a level playing field. The aviation business is unique. The Government creates the physical resources that private players pay and use. These may be parking bays, booking counters, license for routes etc. Unlike, say the FMCG business, if HLL’s dominates the distribution network, a worthy competitor or a bunch of them can create a parallel infrastructure. In the case of aviation, that may not be possible . So, if one player controls a significant portion of that infrastructure and capacity addition is not in the hands of market participants, then it creates a skewed market. Therefore, the Jet-Sahara combine may not create a monopolistic situation, but viewed in the context of the Govt being both a competitor and controller of infrastructure, it does creates a bias – particularly for private sector players. In the long term, this may offer an opportunity to the Jet-Sahara combine, to influence pricing or quality of service that may serve its interests or not the consumer. It is this long-term consumer interest that needs to be protected. And, that’s why the Government needs to intervene.

Run up to a political tsunami

2006 assembly elections promises to be the tipping point in Tamil Nadu politics for many contenders and for many reasons. If the sabre rattling, in the run up to the polls, is any proof to go by, it is clear that battle lines have been drawn between the two leading alliances. The DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance – the umbrella coalition of opposition parties in the State minus the BJP continues to stay united despite rumours of rumble in the ranks. Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, is still playing her political cards close to her chest. But the gameplan that was drawn by the DPA alliance to oust the Jaya regime, way before the Lok Sabha elections 2004, has been dramatically altered. Let’s look a few reasons why.

Rewind to 2004. Jayalalithaa’s image heightened after she came clean from the charges of corruption that were the very reasons for her humiliating defeat in the previous assembly elections. The High Court clearing her in the infamous TANSI land case was a shot in the arm for the rank and file of the Anna DMK. With renewed vigour, Amma’s popularity reached at an all time high. And here’s when things turned horribly wrong. Three separate events – the Govt employees strike for a pay hike was dealt with an iron hand by the State. In one stroke of political high handedness, Jayalalithaa, passed an ordinance modifying Tamil Nadu Essential Services Maintenance Act (TESMA). Overnight, over 2 lakh Govt employees were sacked. A few months earlier, a similar treatment was meted out to a genuine student uprising. Medical college students across the state protested the mushrooming of private medical colleges. The Director of Medical Education suspended 5000 students across the State – crushing their attempt at a democratic means of dialogue with the Govt. Then came Jaya’s piece de resistance. The Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly convened an emergency meeting on the last day of the winter session to order the arrest of journalists of The Hindu – for what it claimed “malicious and defamatory reportage against their beloved Amma”. While the Central Govt intervened to broker peace between the editors of the newspaper and the Govt, the death knell for Jayalalithaa had been rung. These ostensibly unconnected events revealed the brute force and the audacity with which the State Government chose to clamp down any form of opposition to its policies. But then, this aggression was short-lived. Jayalalithaa’s power drunk glory came crashing to the ground with the humiliating defeat that the AIADMK front faced in the Lok Sabha elections. Of the 40 Parliament seats (including Pondicherry) – the DMK-led combine swept all the 40 seats. This victory signalled two things: One, the people of Tamil Nadu were clearly miffed with the present regime and had shifted loyalties. Secondly, a point psephologists had predicted, that the combined electoral arithmetic of the DPA coalition had routed the AIADMK’s electoral prospects.

From this defeat, rose another Jayalalithaa. This Jaya would take no more non-populist decisions. She would no more order midnights arrests nor would she direct suspension. Instead, she became the epitome of generosity, re-created the image that of a benevolent mother that was once her political passport. All controversial legislations – TESMA, Forcible religious conversions act, power tariff hike, bus fare hike were revoked overnight. This new-found image of Amma was further bolstered by a remarkable achievement by the Special Task Force in killing Sandalwood smuggler, Veerapan. Although, Veerapan’s death did not garner political mileage, it certainly did wonders to the image of her Government. The characteristic intransigence of the Jayalalithaa regime suddenly was supplanted by transparency and dialogue. This, suddenly, was a Government that took action, that produced results. Or it seemed.

It was during this time, the grand old man of Tamil Nadu politics, was cleverly dotting the i’s of his gameplan. Everything had worked perfectly for Karunanidhi. He quit the NDA and joined the Cong led coalition at the right time, usurped the role of the king maker with finesse, cobbled up a coalition in the State and led it from the front to victory, and installed his grand-nephew and ten others in the Union cabinet. But nature had other plans.

In December 2004, a tsunami, a word that would soon be added to common parlance in India, left a trail of death and devastation in Tamil Nadu. The damage was unprecedented. The rebuilding efforts required the Government to rise above petty political concerns. And that the Jayalalithaa regime did well - to its credit. Even the World Bank has acknowledged that the remarkable repair and relief work carried out by the State Govt. This natural disaster was not factored in Karunanidhi’s political gameplan. Worse, still, the state had more tragedy in the offing. The torrential rains in 2005, caused more death and destruction. Despite the best of efforts, the State Govt’s handling of rehabilitation came in for criticism. Particularly, the stampedes at relief camps were just unpardonable. But were they blips or was it a failure of administrative machinery? Facts would point to the former but the DMK would vouch for the latter. Unquestionably, the healing touch of the State Government has erased the follies of its past from the minds of the people. Karunanidhi understands this better than anyone else. Therefore, he is now re-drafting his plan to take of the challenges of the new reality. As of Jan 2006, the DMK-led coalition has begun issuing the war cry. While Amma is quietly working on building her campaign on her recent achievements. Will the DPA last or will Jaya manage to break it? Will Amma go with the BJP or will she go it alone? These answers will unfold in a few months. Clearly, this is a political tsunami that is waiting to lash the State of Tamil Nadu.